Sure Bets (forks) at the sportsbooks – Strategy and Features.
Sure bet (arbitration situation) is a number of bets within a single sporting event when player receives a guaranteed profit, recommended for players from United States. The most important thing: you should put stakes on all scenarios. For example, in the market “Bets” of a football match put stakes on the win of favorite, outsider and a draw.
It’s long since the term “sure bets” evolved at the betting stores. But even now, when the “arming” of the bookies are the most advanced computer technologies, thousands of sure bets among the various bookmakers with the yield on the average from 1% to 20% occur on a daily basis. The main reason is the number of online bookmakers that increased rapidly during the recent years. Their analysts often simply cannot afford to follow the lines of their “competitors” for hundreds of sporting events.
For example, we have a match Manchester City – West Bromwich Albion. At “Bookmaker 1» odds to win of Manchester City is 1.75, and at “Bookmaker 2» odds to win of West Bromwich Albion is 6.30, while “Bookmakers 3» ratio at drawn game is 4.20.
Suppose we bet on all three events, highlighting the $ 100 that – to get a guaranteed profit no matter how the event ended:
- 59 $ X 1.75 = 103,25
– 16.39 $ X 6.30 = 103,25
– 24.61 $ X 4.2 = 103,25
As you can see, whatever the outcome, we have a profit of about 3.25 dollars, because our total rate was $ 100. This is the ideal sure bet with the same profit on all results. You can certainly put the stakes so that the most unlikely outcome makes a profit equal to zero, then the profits for the rest of the shoulders slightly increase.
- The same situation can occur with a sure bet, when on one shoulder there will be profit, and on the other – return or partial refund of bets.
- Sure bets may be negative (a small loss). They can be used, for example, to wager (if wagering bookmakers for bonus-hunting).
Types of sure bets
As we already know, sure bet is a set of bets on all possible outcomes of the event. In the example above, we have considered the most widespread sure bet on three outcomes of a football match, but it’s only a fraction of all possible “arbitrage situations.” And so:
- Sure Bet with two outcomes (two “arms»)
O – U (total over or under). A total for the number of goals is the most common type of sure bets with two shoulders. For example – O 2.5 and U 2.5
- Sure bets involving market “Winning Teams or Draw” (1X or 2X). Market “Winning Teams or Draw” covers just two outcomes, the second arm of sure bets is the outcome of the second team that wins at the market “Bets”. For example: “1X – 2″ – bet on “Favorite’s winning or Draw” and bet on the “Victory of outsider” (market rate).
- Sure bets involving market “Winning of favorite or outsider” (12). Everything here is similar to the previous example, with exception of the second outcome – it is drawn game at the market “Bets”.
- WF and WO (Winning favorite or outsider, not including a draw). Standard market for all bookmakers, in the case of drawn game bet is returned. For sure bets you need to make one bet on the favorite’s winning and outsider’s winning.
Sure bet with three outcomes (bets)
Immediately it should be noted that if such outcomes intersect (i.e. multiple outcomes can win or you get the refund rate), the yield of such Sure Bets is increasing by times! Such sure bets with usual outcomes: Handicap with zero or Handicap with hundredths (e.g. H1 0.25), Mixed Totals (e.g. Total Over (2.25) – Total Under (2.5) – Total Under (1.75)).
1 – X – 2 (Market “Bets”). The most common type of sure bets in football needs no introduction.
Sure Bets involving market “Handicap” (Asian Handicap). The basis of a market “Bets” is taken as a basis, but instead of the victory of one of the teams (or instead of winning both teams) bet (bets) on it (them) is placed with a handicap. For example: 1 – X – H2 (-0.5) – instead of the victory of the second team, bet with odds is placed for the win of the second team.
Total Over (O) – Total Under (U) (2 Totals Over and 1 Total Under or vice versa). It comes that different bookmakers give different totals. There are integral totals (4.0, 5.0, etc.), and there are decimal totals (4.5, 5.5) – such as at Betfair, William Hill. So, one can get sure bet of three such totals (for general goals in a match or individual totals per team), covering all possible outcomes – if there is no sure bets totals with two shoulders for this event. For example: O (3.0) – U (3.5) – U (2.5); or: U (5.0) – O (4.5) – U (5.5)
Mixed odds (Asian and European Handicap). There may be situations where a sure bet is made up of just two handicap types.
Sure bet with four or more outcomes (bets)
Bets on sports is not limited to football. For example, there is tennis betting based on sets. In a triple-set match there can be sure bet of four or six outcomes:
– S (0:2) – S (1:2) – S (2:0) – S (2:1)
Disadvantages of sure bets offered by bookmakers
Benefits of sure bets are obvious – it is 100% yield bets regardless of the outcome. This is the ideal – and in fact this type of betting is not so “without gloomy” as it may seem. If it were so, then all bettors would be richer than “Asian Sheikhs», and the owners of online bookmakers would «ask for alms». Here is just a partial list of “gotchas” that every fan of sure bets can get:
1. Sure Bets are often produced by non-trusted bookmakers. Looking through the sure bets, almost always you see the following: sporting events often arrange sure bets between authoritative bookmakers (Pinnacle, Unibet, Betfair …) and a number of small and unreliable bookies. It comes as no surprise at all – the latter have much fewer resources, and their moneyline is often just late on global trends. Therefore it is necessary to “keep” money in such unreliable sportsbooks, which in itself is very unsafe.
2. Fans of sure bets have to keep accounts at many sportsbooks. On the surebet with three shoulders you need to place a single bet in three different offices, and the next sure bet may already be between other bookmakers! So just need to open an account and make deposits at a large number of sportsbooks.
Just do not forget that at many bookmakers – after deposit with the withdrawal – they may require age verification. Without this a game in a lot of bookies is simply impossible, you should be ready for this.
3. Often a bet on one of the “arms» of sure bets just cannot be placed. Indeed, it is a very common “force majeure”. For example – you’ve already made two bets on your plug in two bookmakers, and now you go to the third one, and see the message that reads “Connection Error”… That kills it! This bet you could not place, and if this is the outcome that wins in the end, and then your sure bet is “burned” and you’ll get a loss that can block the profit for a few previous days! Of course, it is possible to bet on a new factor, but it is likely to have “not get” a sure bet, and the stake would be a negative one. It is very important – if you see “super paying sure bet» (e.g., 20% or more), it is probably caused by an error in the moneyline of one of the bookies and betting on a sure bet is very risky!!!
It comes that some bookmakers have maxima in individual matches that is less than the required amount of the bet on the fork.
4. Cutting highs for bets with sure bets. Many would argue – how bookmaker should know that I put sure bets, because at one bookie I make only one bet at a “fork»? It is very easy to know, because betting analysts know their stuff. Wagering on sure bets is usually very characteristic, and certainly betting analysts also use search services for sure bets and know what sporting events are in special demand, and it is very easy to calculate and “cut highs” at bets up to 10 dollars or less, which makes bets for sure bets impossible.
The most offensive is that bookmakers have every right to do so. By many of them this stays written in the Rules (which you agreed when registering), and these clearly indicate that the bookmaker may at any time change the maximum amount of bets. The rather that sure bet is “exploitation” of errors and inaccuracies of the line, which is strictly prohibited by the majority of on-line bookmakers. 90% of all posts on the forums about slitting accounts – is the result of bets on arbitrage opportunities.
5. Blocking of accounts due to sure bets. As I mentioned, sure bet is in fact a violation of the rules during the game at the bookmaker. Therefore, all the fans of such bets are at risk, and at any time their accounts can be blocked.